As demand is pulled into June, attention turns to upcoming mid-year forecasts
The ocean freight market is heading into a summer where the headline story and the real story diverge sharply.
Rates are moving higher, with bunker surcharges of around USD 500 per FEU entering July pricing, and the unresolved uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz reinforcing expectations of a prolonged period of disruption. At a Xeneta-hosted NYC Freight Roundtable on June 4, participants described a growing consensus that disruption is unlikely to ease before Q3 at the earliest, with many planning as if it will last through the full contract year. As Peter Sand observed, "The wave of freight rate increases is gathering momentum."
And spot rates tell the same story: the cost of a 40-foot container from Asia to northern Europe hit $3,649 as of June 6 — a 27% jump in a single week — while the Asia–US West Coast rate rose 20% to $3,933, according to Xeneta data cited in Bloomberg on June 7.
On the surface, this looks like a strong (if early) peak season.
But the volume behind those rates tells a different story. (....)