Supply chains had already adapted to Cape rerouting and softer rates. Now disruption is shifting again, leaving contracts out of sync with operational reality. Here’s how to assess the impact, step by step, and decide what to challenge first.
For most BCOs, 2026 was supposed to be a reset year.
Rates had been softening for months. The extreme volatility of recent years was easing. And critically, the industry had already adapted to disruption in the Red Sea — with supply chains recalibrated around longer routings via the Cape of Good Hope.
That cost had been absorbed. That complexity had been planned for.
After a year in which 96% of procurement teams experienced moderate or significant disruption — and 72% saw direct impact across their supply chains — many went into the 2026 tender season believing the worst was behind them.
Then the market shifted again.
This time, it is not just a continuation of the Red Sea disruption. With both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously blocked, the industry is facing a different kind of shock — one that hits both routing flexibility and fuel logistics at the same time.
It is a second-order disruption — hitting a system that had already adjusted once and forcing contracts to fall out of sync with operational reality.
Carriers are layering in emergency surcharges, transit times are shifting again due to rerouting, and procurement teams are being forced back into renegotiation — or met with radio silence — while explaining unplanned costs to finance and leadership. (....)