Global container vessel schedule reliability remains somewhat stable around 60‑65%, showing no signs of improvement, and in stark contrast to the 2011‑2019 normality of 70‑80%. Furthermore, late vessel arrivals are now settling into 5‑5.5 days of delay, up from the pre-pandemic norm of 3‑4 days. This structural shift to a larger risk of vessel delays, and their longer durations, inexorably leads to a larger share of global capacity being rendered unavailable, as vessels stuck in delays do not move cargo.
The share of these delayed vessels combined with the duration of the delays, can be used to calculate the amount of global deep‑sea capacity effectively absorbed by delays (Figure 1).
In 2011‑2019, the container shipping industry was quite stable. During that time, on average, only 2.2% of the world's container shipping capacity was tied up by delays. The industry accepted this 2.2% rate as a standard part of balancing supply and demand. However, following the pandemic, things have changed a lot. Now, a total of 5.0% of all global deep‑sea capacity is tied up. This means that 2.8% more shipping space is absorbed right now, compared to what was considered to be normal pre-pandemic. (....)