While international trade continued to flow in May and global air cargo volumes rose +6% year-on-year, market sentiment and concerns over what comes next saw airfreight spot rates decline for the first time in a year, according to Xeneta’s latest market analysis.
Midway through the month, the global air cargo market appeared to have dodged a perfect storm as the US-China 90-day tariff truce began on 14 May after the escalating retaliatory tariffs since April. The US administration lowered its additional tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China responded by decreasing its tariffs on the US to 10%.
This welcome news came too late to reverse a softening in freight rates. The global air cargo spot rate fell -4% year-on-year in May to USD 2.44 per kg - the first such decline since April 2024. This could, in part, also be attributed to nearly 20% year-on-year declines in jet fuel costs. More downward pressure may lie ahead, said Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw.
“Market fundamentals are holding up, but the drop in rates is likely a reflection of declining sentiment and concerns, particularly among airlines, over what will happen once more stability returns to international trade and there is less of a push for the security of airfreight. Whatever worse trade conditions take away from overall trade, this uncertainty gives a bit back to airfreight,” he said. (....)