The global air freight market enters 2026 with unexpected momentum but significant operational bruising. Contrasting with earlier forecasts of a muted year-end, December 2025 delivered a powerful "peak of peaks," with global demand surging +11% year-on-year, marking the 14th consecutive month of double-digit growth.
However, this volume boom collided with severe late-December operational disruptions. A "bomb cyclone" winter storm in the US, coordinated strikes across Europe and harsh winter weather particularly in Northern Europe created a chaotic finish to the year and, grounding thousands of flights and displacing critical cargo capacity. Disruptions caused by severe weather conditions in Europe continue.
As the industry pivots to Q1 2026, the narrative shifts from raw demand growth to regulatory complexity and resilience. The implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on 1 January 2026, has introduced immediate compliance hurdles. While forecasts for 2026 project a moderation in demand growth to the 3-6% range, the immediate short-term outlook is defined by a scramble to clear storm-related backlogs before the Chinese New Year shutdown.
Key Trends
• Dec 2025 demand surged +11% YoY, marking 14 consecutive months of double-digit growth.
• Growth driven by AI hardware shipments and strong cross-border e-commerce, not just tariff front-loading.
• Severe late-December disruptions (US winter storm + European strikes) grounded flights and displaced capacity, creating Q1 2026 backlogs.
• 2026 demand growth forecast moderates to 3–6%. (....)