Executive Summary
Global air freight entered late February with solid momentum, but the market tone changed sharply after the Middle East conflict disrupted key hub-and-spoke flows through Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi. IATA reported January global demand up 5.6% YoY against 3.6% capacity growth, while Xeneta said February demand still rose 6% YoY, with dynamic load factor reaching 62% and average global spot rates up 5% YoY to USD 2.58/kg. Since early March, the main issue has shifted from demand strength to capacity shock, rerouting, and fuel inflation. On affected lanes, Reuters/Freightos reported spot spikes of up to 70%. Near term, the market is likely to stay firm-to-volatile, especially on Asia–Europe, South Asia–Europe, and Europe–Middle East corridors. Forwarders should expect higher procurement risk, shorter validity windows, and stronger airline yield discipline through April. (IATA) (....)