The global air freight market is undergoing a major realignment driven by trade policy rather than traditional economic factors. Despite a cooling global economy, air cargo volumes grew 5% year-over-year in August, creating a disconnect between economic forecasts and actual demand.
Air freight rates remain stable but face potential increases due to continued demand weakness and volatile tariffs. Asia-Pacific continues to be a strong driver of demand, but trade policy uncertainty, especially related to potential U.S. tariffs, is a major concern for the industry, influencing shipping volumes and supply chain strategies.
Key Trends
Policy Disruptions:
• Global removal of de minimis exemption for low-value e-commerce (29 August) caused a 50% decline in China-US e-commerce shipments
• Ongoing US tariff actions continue to reshape trade flows
• Legal uncertainty remains, with federal appeals court ruling certain tariffs illegal but leaving them in place
Capacity Redeployment: (....)