In issue 727 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the "trade whiplash" effect — a violent boom-bust cycle in US imports — and quantify the potential downside risk of escalating trade tensions. This potential risk was raised by the IMF in their latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
Our analysis first established that the whiplash effect is already underway. Driven by an artificial boom from importers front-loading cargo to avoid tariffs, US ports experienced exceptionally strong growth in early 2025, which was immediately followed by a sharp bust, as shown in Figure 1. (....)