In issue 732 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed vessel deployment data on the Transpacific and Transatlantic trades, to see if shipping lines are reducing their use of Chinese-built vessels, ahead of new US Trade Representative (USTR) fees set to take effect on October 14th, 2025. The new regulations mean that Chinese-built vessels calling US ports will have to pay a fee. An exception is made for voyages shorter than 2,000nm and vessels smaller than 4,000 TEU. Additionally, COSCO and OOCL, being Chinese carriers, will have to pay a fee, regardless of where their vessels are built. Our analysis shows that a shift is beginning to materialize on Transpacific, but no such effect is yet seen on the Transatlantic.
To measure any potential changes, we tracked the vessels deployed on two trades on a weekly basis throughout 2025 and mapped each vessel to its shipyard of origin. We calculated the share of Chinese-built vessels over a 3-week rolling average to reduce volatility, so we can identify any underlying trends as we approach the implementation date for the new fees. (....)