In Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s 2026 Market Outlook webinar, Global Head of Consultancy Stephen Burnside joined Richard Evans and Daniel Hall to evaluate the key factors shaping commercial aviation.
Aviation enters 2026 with momentum, experiencing resilient demand, persistent supply‑side constraints and an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment.
In The 2026 Aviation Market Outlook broadcast live on 4th February 2026, Stephen Burnside, Richard Evans and Daniel Hall explored the key factors shaping the sector to unpack what this means for airlines, lessors and the wider industry.
Mixed macro signals leave less room for error
From a macroeconomic perspective, the headline indicators point to an environment that supports air travel demand. Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) remain high, key economies are growing, and productivity metrics are rising sharply – all good news for the aviation industry. As Stephen Burnside noted, “PMIs are doing great… if it’s above 50%, we’re expanding,”
However, consumer sentiment is weakening, and external shocks threaten to create abrupt economic corrections. “The US is central to our 2026 outlook… we like to keep a very close eye on the US because it does really drive the entire world economy” Stephen explained, adding that the impact of a US policy error impacting trade and undermining economic growth was the “number one risk for our outlook for 2026”. (....)