In issue 746 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the capacity deployment trends in the 10 weeks leading up to Chinese New Year (CNY) 2026. By indexing deployed capacity against a stabilised pre-peak baseline, we identified a significant deviation from historical norms. The data indicates that shippers have adopted a "front-loading" strategy on the Asia-North Europe trade, likely to mitigate the impact of extended transit times.
Figure 1 illustrates the magnitude of this shift. Historically (2015-2019), the pre-CNY capacity ramp-up on Asia-North Europe was moderate, with capacity growing approximately 10% from the baseline to the peak. In contrast, the 2026 projection shows a surge in intensity that essentially quadruples the historical data. (....)