Early market optimism for 2026 was dampened by the first year-on-year fall in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022, according to industry analysts Xeneta.
An earlier Lunar New Year flattered global air cargo demand in January as the year commenced with unexpected vigour with a +7% year-on-year boost in demand and an easing of recent freight rate declines, but any early market optimism for 2026 was dampened by the first year-on-year fall in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022, according to industry analysts Xeneta.
The growth in global chargeable weight in the opening month of 2026 was the strongest increase since January 2025, and ahead of the +5% year-on-year growth in capacity supply. With volumes rising faster than capacity, the global dynamic load factor edged up one percentage point to 57%. Dynamic load factor is Xeneta’s measurement of capacity utilisation based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity.
Recent pricing declines also recovered with global air cargo spot rates down just -1% year-on-year to USD 2.56 per kg in January.
However, Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, said the relative upbeat nature of the air cargo market in January needs to be’ tempered with a dose of reality’.
Always a tough month to call (....)