The Upply x Ti x IRU Q4 2025 European road freight rates index shows divergence between contract and spot markets. Contract rates climbed to 136.9, a solid 2.6-point increase quarter on quarter (q-o-q), and a 3.1-point rise year on year (y-o-y). Meanwhile, spot rates reached 135.1, advancing modestly by 0.3 points from the previous quarter, but declining 3.3 points compared to the same period last year.
• EU retail trade volume rose by 2.3% y-o-y in November 2025.
• New truck registrations across the EU fell by 6.2% in 2025, according to ACEA, indicating potential capacity constraints.
• According to IRU's driver shortage survey, there were 444,000 vacant truck driver positions in Europe in 2025.
• Fuel prices rose slightly in Q4 2025, with the average European diesel price increasing by 0.66% q-o-q.
• Tolling is becoming a larger component of trucks' total cost of ownership. In Austria and Hungary, toll rates per kilometre now exceed fuel costs.
• The outlook for rates across Europe in 2026 is modest upwards pressure, driven by a moderate recovery in European demand.
• The Road Freight Sentiment Index for Q4 stands at 10.7, down by 2.0 points from Q3, indicating that bullish expectations for European road freight rates moderated slightly towards the end of the year. (....)