Expect another year of volatility in global trade. Geopolitics continues to prevail over efficiency, and protectionism remains firmly in place. US tariffs will have lasting effects, but the world moves on. The outlook is less bleak than a year ago thanks to trade's resilience, but the impact of the emerging global order will be felt in 2026
Global trade has proved resilient, but will take a hit in 2026
2025 will go down in history as the year everything changed in global trade.
When US President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs in April using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), global trade was jolted into sudden adjustment. Expected price increases sparked a widespread wave of frontloading, especially in the US, even bringing forward the container shipping peak season as importers rushed to secure goods for the second half of the year.
Despite these disruptions, global trade proved more resilient than anticipated. The US, the world’s largest economy, represents roughly 14% of global imports, and many affected Chinese exporters successfully diverted shipments to new markets. (....)