Overcapacity in container shipping is a key theme for the year ahead – and we are now seeing the different ways carriers will tackle this problem across the world’s major trades.
The Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2026 – published in October – highlighted overcapacity in container shipping as a key theme for the year ahead – and we are now seeing the different ways carriers will tackle this problem across the world’s major trades.
With a forecast for container demand growth of 3% against fleet growth of 3.6%, the overcapacity headache will get worse for carriers in 2026.
Carriers have demonstrated their ability to manage capacity effectively, but they have some big decisions to make in the year ahead.
Do they manage capacity to keep rates elevated? Do they take a more aggressive approach of maintaining higher capacity levels in a strategy to gain market share?
The answer will be a combination, with different tactics deployed on different trades – which makes life more difficult for shippers in understanding these market dynamics in 2026.
Far East to US – market share over higher rates
Carriers are taking an aggressive approach on the US-bound fronthauls, seemingly targeting market share rather than higher rates.
From the Far East to US East Coast, weekly offered capacity is up 35% compared to a year ago, with a four week rolling average standing at 183 000 TEU. (....)