Airlines are rethinking capacity growth plans in response to higher jet fuel prices and disruption in the Middle East. Richard Evans examines the latest schedule data to assess how carriers are responding and model the impact on global capacity growth in 2026.
Three weeks ago, Cirium’s forward schedule data for April 2026 showed a 3.4% year-on-year growth in ASKs, compared to 5.4% immediately before the conflict started. For May 2026, planned capacity had fallen marginally, from 6.6% to 6.3%.
Since then, airlines have continued to adjust their near-term schedules, as a direct result of airspace and airport disruption in the Middle East, as well as due to the cost impact of a doubling in jet fuel prices. The latest schedule data now shows that April 2026 ASKs are down by 2.0% year-on-year, in-line with the March 2026 actual flown capacity. May 2026 capacity has now been cut by around three percentage points, to stand at 3.4% growth over May 2025.
The chart below shows the latest May 2026 capacity plans of the 20 largest airlines, in terms of ASKs. With one exception, Turkish Airlines, all the airlines have cut their May schedule. Most have made reductions of 0-5 percentage points, consistent with the global change of 3%. There is a noticeable contrast between Qatar, with schedule now down 33% versus May 2025, and Emirates, who still plan a 2.4% year-on-year growth. (....)