Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. WTO economists have therefore raised the forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 while lowering the outlook for services trade.
According to the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" released on 8 October, merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from the March forecast of 1.9%, before increasing further to 4.1% in 2027 (see Chart 1). The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods. Commercial services trade growth is expected to remain positive, although prospects have moderated due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on transport and international travel. Services trade volume is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from 4.8% in the March forecast, before rising by 6.4% in 2027. (....)