It is too early to predict the wider economic effects of conflict in Iran and the wider Middle East, but its impact on airline capacity can already be measured. Richard Evans assesses the effect on global ASKs using Cirium tracked utilisation data, with a focus on Middle Eastern airlines.
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Richard Evans airline consultant
Team Perspective
Richard Evans, Senior Consultant, Cirium Ascend Consultancy
While it is too early to predict the length or macro-level effect on the global economy of the conflict in the Middle East, we can measure the impact to-date on airline capacity, via Cirium’s Tracked Utilisation data
.At the start of 2026, Cirium Ascend Consultancy’s view was that global traffic (RPKs) and capacity (ASKs) would grow in the range of 4-6% versus 2025. This was broadly in line with the visible forward schedule, and also similar to IATA’s December 2025 Outlook, which predicted 4.9% global RPK growth.
IATA reported January 2026 traffic was up 3.8% versus 2025, on capacity up 3.5%. It has not yet reported February figures, but Cirium data shows that actual ASKs flown grew by 5.3% last month. (....)