In issue 738 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the competitive landscape of schedule reliability among the top 20 global container shipping lines since 2011. While cargo owners often focus on the overall industry average, the difference in performance between carriers is a key measure of competitive differentiation.
Our analysis shows that despite significant market consolidation, the spread between the most and least reliable carriers has increased substantially since 2016, offering cargo owners a wider range of service levels.
To measure this diversification, we calculated the difference between the highest and lowest global carrier schedule reliability scores recorded among the top 20 carriers each month, using a 3-month rolling average to smooth out volatility.
As shown in Figure 1, the performance gap between the top and bottom carriers narrowed significantly from 2011 to a low point in 2016, suggesting reliability was becoming less of a competitive differentiator during that period, where the industry was dominated by endemic overcapacity and internecine price wars. However, since 2016, the trend has reversed dramatically. The spread in reliability performance has widened considerably, reaching new highs during the pandemic disruptions and remaining significantly elevated in 2024-2025. (....)