Industry claims, often echoed by governments to justify airport expansion, that more flights benefit the economy, undermined by new research.
The first ever Europe-wide analysis investigating the link between the growth in air transport and economic growth, has found industry claims that economic growth is driven by increased air connectivity, such as airport expansion, are deeply flawed.
The study from the New Economics Foundation, and commissioned by T&E, analysed 274 European regions and shows that the supposed link between air traffic growth and economic growth is weaker than commonly claimed. In 53% (143) of the regions analysed, much of Northern and Western Europe, the higher income of citizens drives increased air traffic, not the other way around. The analysis finds that air traffic growth is most often a consequence of prosperity, not the cause of it.
The research examines the evidence that air transport growth is driving economic growth across different regions using a statistical clustering technique. In regions of cluster 3 and 4 in the map above, the probability that air transport growth was driving economic growth was low or even negative. In regions of clusters 1 and 2 the probability was moderate.
“Allowing uncontrolled aviation growth isn't just terrible climate policy, it is bad economic policy.“ Denise Auclair, Head of T&E’s Travel Smart Campaign says. “In large parts of Europe, the aviation industry claims that airport expansion and ever more flights bring economic growth are simply not supported by the evidence. It is a pure industry myth that air traffic growth automatically brings sustainable job growth and boosts the economy. Governments shouldn’t be swayed by these claims, which also ignore the negative consequences of air transport growth. ” (....)