October 2026OPX falls below €100/tCO₂e as competition for FuelEU surplus volumes intensifies
The OceanScore Pool-Price Index (OPX) stands at €95.80/tCO₂e in October, down from €108.60/tCO₂e in September. October offer levels range from €70 to €138/tCO₂e, compared with €102 to €160/tCO₂e in September. With the OPX falling by almost 12% month on month and both ends of the observed offer range moving significantly lower, downward pressure on FuelEU surplus pricing continues.
One of the clearest drivers is the rapid increase in competition among surplus sellers. Where the market counted approximately 5–10 sellers last year, more than 40 are now competing for buyer demand. At the same time, individual sellers can bring substantial volumes to market. A single large seller can potentially cover a deficit comparable in size to that of the entire Greek market — around 300,000 tonnes of compliance balance. With available surplus continuing to outweigh demand, sellers are competing increasingly aggressively to secure commercially relevant volumes. (....)