About this report
The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.
Highlights
• World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.5 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q26 and 2.6 mb/d on average in 2026. As the Iran war manifests itself through restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook, diesel will register 25% of the drop. A partial recovery, of 2 mb/d, will leave 2027 global oil use 620 kb/d, or 0.6%, below 2025 levels.
• Global oil supply increased by 2.5 mb/d m-o-m to 102.3 mb/d in September, driven by Gulf producers. OPEC+ gains of 2.1 mb/d were led by Saudi Arabia, while the UAE drove non-OPEC+ increases. Oil supply is projected to post an average annual decline of 5.8 mb/d, to 100.7 mb/d, this year, before reversing course and rising by 7.7 mb/d in 2027. Renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery fragile. (....)