In the lead up to our Year in Review of schedule reliability, where we will highlight supporting measures like congestion and cancellation rates, we take one final look back at month-over-month trends.
Global
November's global schedule reliability saw average on-time percentage dip slightly down to 34%, over from 36% in October. This was coupled with a corresponding increase from –3.9 days of delay against –3.8 days. While it’s not necessarily foreboding, November is the first ‘low’ deviation from the sideways trend observed in the last 7 months. In the wake of the complex alliance turnovers that defined Q1 and Q2, on-time arrivals have ranged between 35-38% since May.
Monthly global reliability
There is no major variable currently expected to yield a dramatically positive or negative effect on global reliability in the close of the year. While there is plenty of excitement around the dedicated trickle of increased Suez Canal transits, any positive impacts on reliability are still far from measurable.
This is due to two considerations; the first being that voyages must be executed at scale and frequency to have a clear impact on Far East – Europe, and thus global reliability. Right now, we have just 4 new Suez Canal proforma schedule inclusions lined up. CMA CGM’s MEX, INDAMEX, FAL1, and FAL3 services round out the roster, with all but the Mediterranean – North America INDAMEX being classic Far East – Europe strings. The more discreet aspect is that the imminent voyages are classified as inducement (aka unplanned) calls and cannot be measured against fixed service schedules. Even with new service versions like version 19 of the FAL3 having already commenced, roundtrip times mean that the next officially scheduled eastbound voyages through the Suez Canal won’t be upon us until January.Trades (....)