The prospect of a largescale return of container ships to the Red Sea following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Houthi militia in Yemen would flood the market with shipping capacity and cause a global collapse in freight rates – but the situation remains far from certain. Data released by Xeneta – the ocean and air freight intelligence platform – shows global TEU-mile demand would decrease 6% if container ships begin sailing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal again instead of diverting around the Cape of Good Hope. TEU-mile demand factors the distance each 20ft equivalent container (TEU) is transported globally as well as the number transported. The 6% is based on global container shipping demand growth of 1% for full year 2025 and a largescale return of container ships to the Red Sea in H2. (....)