ICC-commissioned modelling finds that severe and sustained disruption could also contribute to around one million additional diet-related deaths in 2030 and leave 67 million more people underweight. Coordinated public and private sector action is needed to keep fertilisers and agricultural inputs flowing and prevent disruptions from deepening food insecurity.
A prolonged disruption to fertiliser and energy markets linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push global cereal prices sharply higher, with potentially severe consequences for food security and public health, according to new modelling commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC).
In the study’s most severe scenario, global cereal prices rise by as much as 81% above 2020 levels. The shock also feeds through sharply to households, with consumer food prices in East Asia, the Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa rising close to 70% above a 2020 baseline. (....)