The latest growth projections by IMF in their July 2026 update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, indicate a steep deceleration in global trade volume growth, dropping from 5.0% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026.
This slowdown is heavily influenced by prior front‑loading of cargo by shippers, the dampening macroeconomic effect of global tariffs, and the ongoing logistical hurdles surrounding the geopolitically impacted regions. Furthermore, economies integrated into the artificial intelligence (AI) value chain are experiencing a significant, technology‑driven boom, with the top four net exporters of AI‑related hardware – Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia – receiving significant upward revisions to their growth forecasts (Figure 1). Conversely, traditional consumer‑facing trade lanes into Europe and North America face weakening fundamentals, dragged down by sluggish domestic consumer spending and elevated energy prices, among other issues. (....)