Resilience of the global air freight market is tested once again as conflict in Middle East places a further question mark against already low growth expectations for 2026
Niall van de Wouw & Wenwen Zhang
The resilience of the global air freight market is being tested once again as conflict in the Middle East places a further question mark against already low growth expectations for 2026, but lessons from past crises are bringing some short-term stability as shippers, airlines, and forwarders wait to see what unfolds in the region, and its long-term impact on the global economy, says industry analysts, Xeneta.
Historically, air freight has served as an equalizer during supply chain crises, notably Covid and Red Sea disruption. When ocean freight shipping faltered, air cargo stepped in to fill the gap. This time is different. Unlike previous shocks, the current conflict is hitting airlines and air cargo industry harder than ocean shipping amidst fears the worst may be yet to come.
“Typically, at the start of each month, we report the global air cargo market’s performance for the previous 4-5 weeks – but, right now, whether demand was down -2% or -4% in March does not concern the industry greatly if we are on the verge of a global economic crisis,” says Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer.
“There is clearly a lot of concern and unanswered questions about the market outlook, but we also see a current transparency and maturity in customer and supplier relationships, and a sense of solidarity that although the impact of the conflict is beyond their control, they will get through it together.” (....)