The 2026 Middle East conflict shocked a well and long-established hub-and-spoke airline ecosystem. Since the beginning, Cirium has kept clients and global media abreast of developments, and we are well-suited to analyze the daily cancellation and schedule trends.
The Middle East Carriers Connect Continents
The Middle Eastern carriers and hubs are critical for long-haul passengers. The 2026 Middle East conflict has directly impacted intercontinental airline connectivity, and in particular, between Europe, Asia, and Australasia.
For instance, Cirium has analysed passenger share between continents, comparing 30 global international airlines. Emirates alone carries over 13% of Europe-to-Asia passengers and more than 31% between Europe and Australasia. Qatar Airways and Etihad further reinforce this concentration, meaning that on some of the world’s longest and most transfer-dependent routes, a small number of Gulf carriers collectively control a significant portion of capacity and passenger traffic.
5M Disrupted Passengers in the Early Weeks of the Conflict
A weeks-long conflict has disrupted the travel plans of leisure and business travelers alike. Our rough estimate suggests that around 5 million passengers were impacted by flight cancellations between February 28 and March 11, 2026 — though this remains a high-level approximation covering cancellations between the Middle East and destinations outside the region, excluding intra-Middle East flights. The estimate assumes an average load factor of 80% and roughly 242 seats per flight, recognizing that capacity varies significantly by aircraft type and route. (....)