Since late 2025, the Panama Canal has continuously monitored the El Niño scenario for the current year, which is why the water level at Gatún Lake has been maintained at historically high values. It is important to note that El Niño is part of the natural variability of the planet and may reoccur within a period ranging from two to seven years.
In light of the potential threat of an El Niño event in the second half of 2026, the Panama Canal began implementing water-saving measures at the locks in late 2025 and took advantage of the relatively dry season in 2026, which was among the wettest on record since 1950, to strengthen water reserves in Gatún and Alhajuela Lakes.
In practical terms, this means that the scenario is monitored with scientific rigor and operational prudence. The magnitude and severity of the phenomenon is assessed with greater precision at the start of the 2026 rainy season (May–June) which makes it possible to validate the climate models projected at the end of last year.
In the meantime, the Panama Canal updates lake-level projections every week, evaluating possible water-deficit scenarios for May and June 2026, while also maintaining 38 daily transits. Current data does not forecast the need for transit restrictions through December 31, 2026. (....)