• Trade projected to grow 4% in 2026.
• Economic growth in developing economies is projected to slow to 4% in 2026, while they face new technological and policy barriers.
• Most Asian economies show remarkable resilience and dynamic growth.
• AI is a key driver of dynamism in global trade, but gains are extremely concentrated.
• Rising economies of the Global South anchor regional and sectoral integration.
UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2026: the geoeconomics of development, presented today in Geneva, projects global growth of 2.6% for 2026, down from 2.9% last year, even as trade in goods and services is expected to expand by about 4% at constant prices. Developing economies are projected to grow by 4% this year, down from 4.7% in 2025.
Global trade reached a record $35 trillion in 2025. In 2026, higher trade values are being driven by price increases amid the energy shock. The global trade map is shifting: trade between China and the United States has fallen by more than 20% since 2024, while East Asia has expanded trade with both China and North America. Export controls, investment screening and supply-chain conditions make strategic sectors harder for new entrants to access. (....)