As global climate policy increasingly shapes international trade, new instruments such as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are transforming how countries access global markets. With CBAM being phased in from 2026, its impacts are expected to affect energy systems, industrial production, and trade relations worldwide.
To support Central Asian countries and their European partners in navigating these changes, UNECE has released a new analytical paper examining the implications of CBAM for the region’s energy transition. The study, “The Implications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Energy Transition in Central Asia,” was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute and UNECE’s Sustainable Energy Division under the “Energy Connectivity in Central Asia” project, funded by GIZ through the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection (BMUV), with contributions from national stakeholders.
The analysis shows the decarbonization trajectory of Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s electricity and industrial sectors in line with EU carbon prices, which are expected to rise sharply, reaching around USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ by 2030 and approximately USD 350 by 2050. These levels could significantly affect Central Asian exporters of emissions-intensive goods such as aluminum, cement, electricity, fertilizers, hydrogen, iron, and steel, particularly countries with potential future electricity or hydrogen exports to the EU, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. (....)