In issue 749 of the Sea Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the latest US inventory data published by the US Census Bureau. Since the data is lagged, the latest release only covers data up to October 2025.
The data shows that inventories in the US are not declining, despite the continuing negative growth in container import volumes. While the inventory to sales ratio has been declining, the data indicates that this is driven by sales growth outpacing inventory growth, rather than a reduction in absolute inventory levels.
Figure 1 illustrates the development of the magnitude of inventories over the past 8 years. As the data shows, inventories are not being reduced but are instead gradually increasing. While the inventory build-up is slowing down – almost to the point of stalling – it is still not declining. However, sales are growing across the spectrum, and at a higher rate than the inventory. (....)