Christmas came early for global air cargo volumes in November with a further +5% year-on-year boost in demand adding to the seasonal cheer, but the industry’s e-commerce ‘growth engine’ of the past two years is slowing down, according to the latest market analysis from Xeneta.
While the demand outlook for the traditionally busiest time of year looked flat heading into the last four months of 2025, September and October’s demand levels were surprisingly robust at +3% and +4% year-on-year respectively. The continuation of this upward trend in November kept the market on track to deliver +4% growth for 2025 ahead of what looks set to be a more challenging year in 2026.
Capacity expansion in November broadly matched demand, although growth in supply over the year remained slower than the demand surge. This gradual rebalancing of demand and supply has still to show up significantly in lower global cargo spot rates, although November’s -5% decline year-on-year to USD 2.73 per kg was above the corresponding -3% drop recorded in October.
The disconnect suggests carriers are chasing market share at the expense of price discipline, squeezing yields in an already downbeat market. Month-on-month, global air cargo spot rates rose by +6% in November, a more subdued increase than the +9% recorded a year ago. (....)