Mineral supply chains now face one of the most pressing challenges for energy security and economic stability
In today's tense geopolitical environment, critical minerals have risen rapidly up the policy agenda as a cornerstone of energy and economic security. These minerals are not only crucial for energy technologies but also play a vital role in high-tech industries, aerospace, defence and advanced manufacturing, making them central not only to energy security but also to broader economic resilience.
The IEA was the first to highlight the risks of high supply concentration of critical mineral supplies, especially in processing and refining. The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 showed that, for a remarkable 19 out of 20 important strategic minerals, China is the leading refiner, with an average market share of 70%. Moreover, our analysis shows that this concentration has only intensified in recent years. Reliance on a small number of suppliers increases vulnerability to shocks and disruptions, be it from extreme weather, technical failure or trade disruptions.
This is no longer just a theoretical concern. There has been a proliferation of export controls on key materials and technologies in recent years. New restrictions on rare earth elements and lithium-ion battery supply chains underscore once again the vulnerabilities and risks.
The rare earth supply chain is among the most highly concentrated across all stages of the value chain
The supply of rare earths remains among the least geographically diversified among all critical minerals. For rare earths used in magnets for various industries – notably neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium – China accounted for around 60% of global mining output in 2024, followed by Myanmar, Australia and the United States. China’s dominance is even greater in the separation and refining stages, representing about 91% of global production, with Malaysia a distant second. (....)