Spot rates up 343% since Hormuz closed. Xeneta's Ocean Outlook 2027 explains why 2027 should soften, and what could stop it.
Peter SandThe case for softening rates in 2027
A forecast for softer rates rests on supply outrunning demand. Xeneta expects the global container fleet to grow 6.8% in 2027, with 2.9m TEU of new capacity arriving against 0.5m TEU scrapped. Demand will grow 2.5% to 4%. That gap is wide enough to loosen the market on its own.
The demand number needs context. Volumes grew 4.7% in the first eight months of 2026, but much of that was frontloading. Shippers pulled cargo forward to beat fuel surcharges and the risk of further disruption. Far East to US volumes rose 11% in August while inflation-adjusted US retail sales grew 1.9%. That gap will close. Expect a slow start to 2027 as summer inventories are drawn down, followed by a weaker peak season. (....)