Global schedule reliability rebounded to 36% in March, up from 27% in February, but rising blank sailings and regional instability suggest improvement is fragile, not structural.
March reliability rebound masks disruptions across global networks
March marked the first positive trend in schedule reliability since the start of the year, but these developments should not be taken at face value.
Global on-time performance rose sharply from 27% to 36% of on-time arrivals after 4 consecutive months of deterioration beginning in Q4 2025. While the headline figures point to relief, a closer look at trade-level performance, cancellation rates, and regional dynamics reveals that network elasticity is being pushed to its limits.
Global
Global on-time performance rose to 36% in March, up from 27% in February and 30% in January. Average delays also improved, falling to -4 days, compared to -4.5 days in the previous month.
This is a clear break from the downward trend seen since November 2025, and the increasing severity of delays. However, despite shorter delays, performance has not returned to December 2025 levels when late arrivals averaged -3.7 days.
At best, March might be interpreted as a stabilization phase rather than a return to normal operating conditions or a sustained recovery. The symptoms of poor reliability may have eased, but the causes of that underlying friction remain largely unresolved. (....)